· 2011 low risk combat arbitrage posted · with b last year on April 19 yilai performance Fund preference machinery chemical medicine large into Fund a quarter gallon double meeting quilt cover 2011 spring private equity Tsim peak Forum Fund April frequently research infrastructure industry social security fund in Hong Kong selling Bank machinery unit Wang yawei a quarter substantially adjusting warehouse ICBC CCB [hexun know] private equity by who supervision recently I on from read to so a: "who are cannot real understanding distant of future will occurs what, but analyst and investors in this aspects is has same of strongly views. For example, the end of 1963, chemical companies in the Dow Jones industrial average earnings significantly higher than the oil companies. This shows that people feel strongly that, former prospects are better than the latter. "1970 year of profit for then geleihanmu data indicate that, although chemical Enterprise valuations high for the year, but then their little earnings growth, and some have even declined. Much better then in petroleum enterprise, basically fulfilled 1963 annual earnings expected growth. Geleihanmu: "this case almost can at any time for any industry. On the future of an industry consensus on Wall Street, usually either too optimistic or too pessimistic. "I can't help but think of the current market share of a stock market and small caps. Market given the earnings difference between the two is so great, we can let Mr geleihanmu flounder. When United States oil valued roughly 15 times, about 25 times times the chemical unit, there is no difference to twice times, while the current valuation of a shares a large number of small caps 50 times, while banks 9 times between the gap of more than 5 times.
Two different markets, two different eras, but optimism was so familiar: 1963 United States markets bullish on DuPont chemical company, as they always have new inventions and new products, is the new industry, represents the future direction of the advanced productive forces, space great sth A-shares investors really correct estimation of the future?
Is also just made a similar mistake? Since small advantages or ends since the end of 2008 a-share markets see, after two years of largely small caps strong show time.
But now, all the signs indicate that, small strips of strong, or ending, 2011 are likely to be withdrawal of funds small caps year of investment theme of year of the return value. Small disk relative market's swoon has begun an exhaustive list. We used 500 index and the stock exchange index 100 in the logarithmic rate of chalai represents small disk relative advantages of the market indexes. Of the index since June 2010 before losing on the strong momentum of the attack, after constant setbacks, to rise again, after November 2010 hit the highest, 5 months later it will not break with this high, and high and gradually decline, long-term averages began to move down the center of gravity. If we then put the card in 500 and 200 index contrast in the so-called second-tier blue chips, small coil weakness is more obvious, since last September, investment income of 200 index better than 500 index gains.
Taking into account the second-tier blue chips also have lower earnings and better mobility, continues to reason in preference of 500 small-capitalization stocks is not easy to hold. We can also be seen from the angle of the second board index changes size advantage. The gem index in June 2010 was released, its highly consistent advantages of movements and small-capitalization index, two time series correlation coefficient of 0.76 per cent. And from each market inflection points of view, the gem index slightly ahead of the small-capitalization advantage index. This logically understandable, the gem index represents the extreme of small-capitalization styles, vane is small caps. When the gem index is in a vulnerable state, small advantages must be continued. Since its first day of the gem index since close June 1, 2010, the gem index rose 3% only, while the CSI 300 index rose 21%, performance of the second board index was not to force. Because without it, the gem stock valuations were too high, up to 59 times times current earnings, net rates 4.7 times, times, and the United States NASDAQ index-earnings ratio of only 17.5 times times, net rate of 2.8 times. A-share markets the best Fund Manager Wang yawei also openly said the gem became overvalued and the callback greater pressure. Wang yawei also purchased a few second board stocks, but weighting less than 1%, almost ignored. From long term perspective, overestimated the value of the plate will be "gravity" constraints, hard to have good performance.
Vane size advantage is inevitably affected the gem of weak performance, and overall pattern of attack would be difficult to reproduce. From the perspective of institutional investors, small caps are less than promising. Huatai joint policy team ye Xiao Mei, a recent report published in the 2010 funds annual report interpretation point out that: "the natural distribution of market shares in circulation market value of the market share is also in increasing year by year, the market share of the market share of more than 60%. While the relative share of the market share in the Fund Portfolio is falling year by year, 2007 market share in total in the Fund Portfolio is small caps 3 times, the second half of 2009 the pattern quickly reversed, and by 2010 the market share and small-cap stocks have leg and. "This shows that in the past two years, with small caps continue phaseFor dominant performance, institutions constantly asset allocation to small and medium caps, this trend is self-reinforcing, self-verification, foam deduction procedure described as Soros. Final body seriously to small caps to deviate from the natural ratio and small-cap market, trends to the extreme of interpretation when will spawn reverse direction of rectification. At present, at least as I understand the situation and each institution communication point of view, almost all institutional investors are beginning to realize that excessive configuration and small-cap stocks, declining and small-cap equity ratio. Taking into account liquidity and small-cap stocks vulnerable and sensitive period in all of us want to sell, institutions to significantly lower and small-cap equity ratio will take some time, this process did not end.
And small-cap and free funds, and to reduce, usually into the market share. Underestimating the value in the blue chips have collection at present 100 index PE (TTM earnings) are generally 13.8 times, at historically low levels.
If there is a very rich buyers to buy 100 index all the equity, he (she) now market quotation is quite cheap, such a cheap quote only in 2005 and 2008 market downturn ever seen. From card 100 index and in the card 500 index of relative valuation see, currently market unit relative valuation than is in history of low, in 0.35 of location, that is also is can get 1 Yuan money of net profit of equity, in the card 100 ingredients company of quote only in the card 500 ingredients unit company equity quote of 35%, even consider to both of growth sexual differences, this quote is has is large of advantage.
In fact, market share growth is not bad, from four disclosure 2010 annual report see, their net profit growth of more than 20%, agricultural Bank's net profit growth of 46%, enough for many highly bullish on the so-called growth stocks market embarrassed. The flood of liquidity, collections are rally fierce, jade, jade has become crazy stone, arts stock rose people dumbfounded, once quiet stamp also has set a new high, even garlic, not storage products such as Apple has experienced a stir. In my view, now truly is a large collection of blue-chip shares. These companies represent the lifeblood of China's national economy, so cheap price. Foreign Investment Bank report said China's market blue chips is already the lowest valuations in Asia. Indeed, most mainland Bank and insurance stocks relatively Hong Kong h-shares still had more than 10% of discounts, including ping an of China (601,318, unit) discount 26%, ABC discount 25%. Market level of blue-chip share significantly-dominated, for example, if in accordance with the end of the 2010 closing price, industrial and commercial bank of dividend rate (before tax) of 4.34%, CCB dividend rate 4.6%, Bank of 4.52%, agricultural Bank of 4%. Four dividend rates are higher than the one-year deposit rate 3%, even the most conservative of investors, the four lines of investment value has begun. Large blue chips also have very good liquidity, can be realized in a very short time.
This is Jade, jade and other collections far cannot be compared.
As long as our economic prospects in China also holds a positive attitude, believe in 35 7% GDP growth generally have no problems during the planning, to the relative low price long term holds a large blue chip far better than cash or follow the buy Collections.
In value name, favorite underestimate the value of the market for blue chips. China value of Fortune SGAM ETF: optimal configuration of the value of the subject this year since the reunification, a stock market investment theme has started to return towards the value significantly. From the perspective of industry, underestimated the value of iron and steel, real estate, home appliances, before the financial services, there are more than 10% of receipts, and overestimated the value of industry, information service, electronic, pharmaceutical, food and beverages, such as the worst, so far this year remains a negative income. Iron and steel and the worst of the best information services has generated more than 30% of the income gap between!
Clearly, the market value return journey has departure, low valuation industry earnings are still substantially below the historical average, the valuation or the repair process can continue to occur throughout 2011. Under the value pattern, the best a-shares value of Fortune SGAM ETF asset allocation is the subject of China (code 510,030).
Previous analyses have pointed out that underestimating the value blue chip has the long term value to the collection, and value of ETF shares is precision low valuations of blue-chip group, purchased value ETF, equivalent to a buy a basket of equity portfolio of the most consistent with the current market pattern. On the selection of shares, value of ETF reflect the value of the second character to the extreme. Passive tracking of the Fund value of SSE 180 index, while the value of SSE 180 index pursuant to 4 value factor: D/P (dividend yield), E/P (1/earnings), B/P (1 in/net rate), CF/P (in 1/rate), from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 index stocks selected the most valuable features every six months in 60 stocks. These four factors are clearly measuring the value of a stock of the most important of the four dimensions. Eventually elected Assembly in these four dimensions are relative SSE 180, Shanghai 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has distinct advantages. For example, the value of SSE 180 index and its "parent" compared to SSE 180, dividend rate from 1.88% to the cent, 2010 earnings fell from 14.36 12.02, the urban net rates from 2.47 to 2.15, the city fell under the present rate of 20.66 15.65.
These key indicators of improvement will no doubt make value investors very happy, very reassuring. Value dimension carefully selected from four combinations are very worthwhile, confirmed this market very effectively.
This year, as of April 13, SSE 180 index value to 12.45% return ranks first in the market index, relative "parent" Shanghai 180 index excess return is 3.1%, if long-term backtracking, since 2005, Shanghai 180 index of years yields the value higher than the Shanghai 180 index 1.2%, higher than the Shanghai 50 index 4%. Because of excellent index are selected, value ETF performance is also very eye-catching this year 12.84% yields of rowIn the first name of all index funds, even if all the actively-managed funds and index funds mixed ranking, it is also ranked fourth place! In addition to this excellent yields, don't forget, it also has the advantages of ETF, from trading in the secondary market, do not have to pay stamp duty.
If you purchase it, the management fee is exceptionally low, significantly lower than actively managed funds. Let us look at the value of ETF top weight unit: China Merchants Bank, ping, Minsheng Bank, Industrial Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of communications, China Shenhua, CSI, Turbo in China, Bank of Beijing. Top shares up 55% per cent, banks accounted for 7 of them, and banks was a stock market valuation of minimum plate. 6 in the constituent stocks of the top stocks in Hong Kong h shares, this 6 stock a relatively average discount rate of h-shares is 15.4%.
According to the latest release of 2010 annual average net profit growth of this top ten shares amounted to 31.1%, its growth is also very good, and no less than many small and mid-cap stocks. Current a-share IPO offering accelerated stock increase in the number of very quickly, in Shanghai and Shenzhen have over 2000 stock, disclosed under regulatory schemes, is expected within 5 years, a share or to double the number of shares. Quantity lead change, the traditional idea of investigation and analysis of individual stocks to determine the portfolio will be energy shortage of serious challenges. A large security companies of more than hundred people within one year of the Institute to cover roughly 400 of stock, that is 1600 stock is the blind spot. General investor or even a year out of 100 companies are struggling to do so. Investment in the future, perhaps the market pattern configuration is the most important, like stocks or bonds, the market also was small-capitalization, value or growth, and combinations of configuration best suited to current market patterns.
Growing ETF and index funds varieties such as tone configuration investment is possible and efficient. Market of this year's largest pattern is to underestimate the value of the market value of blue-chip, in this context, the best value of Fortune SGAM ETF configuration than China, and I recommend it without reservation.
