Beijing Fu Rong source investment management of the company's general manager Lin hexun Fund message on April 16, hexun spring 2011 China private equity peak Forum was held at the Beijing International Convention Center, this Forum jointly organised by hexun.com, display constant financial management, Forum theme "after estate age new investment map".
Beijing Fu Rong source investment management company's general manager Lin giving a speech "the stock market will usher in a golden decade". Linhai specific analysis in his speech, now a feature of the market, very few investment options. House + stock 95% per cent of investable assets, are not directed to markets in other places is carried out in the market of the two wheels. In this node, House in the past decade average annual yields of about 3-4 times, may be higher in some areas, but may be more difficult to say after ten years, especially policy is very strict, and there are likely to continue for a long time. Securities market may once again started a new "Decade".
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· Xia stage fengji investment policy · fengji Forum investment real disk summary Fund positions then p 88 red line Fund yuze 22nd terminated listed go open 2011 spring private equity Tsim peak Forum Star Fund Manager "group buy" a unit Fund insurance funded surround seven only chemical unit (schedule) Fund first quarter love chemical lazy "medicine" [hexun know] seeking Fund will cast recommended following for theme speech record: host: next welcome Beijing Beijing rich thaw source investment management company General Manager Lin Hai-yin Mr, please forest total of when we also collection has forest total on market of views, forest total early published has on market trend of views, he think "stock market will ushered in gold ten years new of starting point", he how came such of conclusions, and how view Xia a stage market trend, please forest total to for members interpretation! Lin: Hello! I used to speak some of the more direct, simple, I found the story complex, more difficult to understand, today I used the "golden decade" theme, you can tell what you can see from the inside? Can see hope was able to see the benefits? Also visible is?
Can see, that I am from the title of at least more successful. This is my last July to do an interview, I was identified by the compare four quarters of last year will have a larger wave of opportunity, no matter how much it rises the fall also is how many, anyway, it has come. Success is not a touch out of luck, is thinking of logic. Although funds or securities industry have a Word, results do not represent the future of the King. Here many people aged much longer than me, we all have children, children usually results in the class you are very good, to the probability of a good final exam is also larger.
Because he (she) has a relatively good study habits, there are more good foundation so that he (she) behind the probability of success will be much bigger.
Is in China, including the other industrial, I communicate with entrepreneurs and successful man, found a common place, wants to success in China must stick to a belief that the "party line, following the party", I am not a Democrat, but the Democratic Party, also around the Party Central Committee, so we all know that every opportunity is country. I say "golden decade", to give you a chance. Reform and opening up was started in 1978, first do is land reform, land and houses are the same, after reform and opening up the rural population will have a contract with remuneration linked to output, city residents began to realize the importance of the House before we all live in tube-shaped apartment, don't care about, to the back began to be used to deal fangguansuo, increasing their housing area.
The first ten years of the Decade was the land and House. Second Decade is that we have a variety of new assets – securities. In 1992, Shenzhen, Shanghai has opened, index rose to 90多 from 2,200 points. If you index your investment, when ten years could obtain 20 times earnings, which is very impressive. Then followed by the House, yesterday I was chatting with one securities company executives in Shanghai, he said that the last regret is "5·19" when a leveraged all investment money to invest in stocks, had it bought Shanghai Minhang or House on the outskirts of 2000 Yuan/square meter, now has become/20,000 square meters, of course, such a chance will not come again. Country will tell you what circumstances, what would encourage you to buy a house policy?
Lower loan rates, reducing the threshold, only very loose, wanted to borrow money to buy policies can encourage you to buy the House. To the early 90 's, countries do not encourage continued real estate investment in Hainan, when Premier Zhu several policy came out, many regions of Hainan become uncompleted immediately, many investors have withdrawn, this time to give you a new investment opportunity--the stock market. From that time began to have a million, the millions, we seize this opportunity. Now a feature of the market, our investment options is very small. House + equity accounted investment assets 95%, elsewhere is not invested, or soybean varieties cannot accommodate a large capital, hundreds of millions of, tens of millions of the flow of funds in the market now, billions of small capacity scale and would not become the mainstream market. Market is carried out in the market of the two wheels.
The big wheel can be seen for ten years. In this node, HouseIn the past decade average annual yields of about 3-4 times, may be higher in some areas, but may be more difficult to say after ten years, especially policy is very strict, and there are likely to continue for a long time. Has put it into stocks?
Confirmed I started if possible on the subject--a new golden decade. I did a survey of historical materials, here how many people would like to believe or than I am confident that at least one point in the next ten years, index of 3,000 points up to 10,000 points will from now on? The half. Regardless of whether this is possible, I just look at everyone's expectations, if it has reached, we count it from 3,000 to 10,000 points this yields what is? 230%. If can be worked out five with a five-year annual compound rate of return is.
We do such of assumptions zhihou, then lift a examples, GDP annual growth is how many, last year is 11% points, two years ago is 9%, by such of speed, composite index over should rose to 7,000, and 8,000 points, this ten years impossible does not issuance new of stock, now probably weekly four or five only, if to these weight are is Shang, if market no foam, ten years around of time may also will close 10,000 points. As rational investors, what do you want to configure funds, money has the inherent property, to a place of high income flows. Two days ago a friend of mine told me, you mentioned a point before the Spring Festival, interest rates will rise this year, and why? Why 2008 years, interest rates fell, interest rates rose in this year? If you have not thought about this problem? (The audience a: index not higher this year. ) To cite an example, when no food at home, roadside all Grain Store had closed down and the other case, has a lot of food at home, outside of the Grain Store are closed, so do you judge the result will be the same? Certainly not the same. Asset allocation and asset allocation for 2008 situation in now the same? (The audience a: not the same. ) In 2008, we had no money or are in the hands not cash, but now most people have a lot of cash, I often go out to turn around, find a few friends to drink a cup of tea, found in the hands of these friends have millions of, tens of millions, and billions of money is not invested. As the previous guests say, nothing to vote for the real economy, yields original or 30%, outside the enterprise's income down to a single return only 3% per cent, slightly a floating interest rate has not.
Therefore he holds in his hand a lot of cash. There is also a very important reason, now national regulation of real estate companies, many small and medium-sized property developers city both an action will be taken, stop investing in new projects or stop taking new plots. Two days ago I just went to Shandong, a very famous place, small called Silver Beach, I believe that many people receive SMS developers over there, when up to a week received several good, go look over there, basically 3-4 months the local people, other times no one. After finished the local development, developers have nothing to do, earned $ 100 million or 200 million capital investment to new projects, even the land rent is not enough, other things, he has not, as such funding, not only in Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang here very much.
Real estate business is a highly leveraged trades, as long as the stop construction of a new project, capital soon will be a substantial increase, this time he will face orientation problems. I also agree with the views of the guests, current market requires a chance or a breakthrough. The breakthrough could be policy, there may be a new round of market, there may be a one or two outbreaks of a plate, but I believe that sooner or later will wait until the breakthrough. As long as the breakthrough point out opportunities in the field, outside funds will be a very fast speed, incredible speed to coming in to all of us, because no other flow path. This is the current situation of China's market. We just said the economy was growing too fast, the State can be found in the macro-control, adjustment of GDP can be man-made, why is that?
In 2008, not enough time, in order to "eight" vote for a 4 trillion, 2009 requires sustained plus a 2 trillion, by the end of three quarters of data out later, hope the four-quarter to how much countries before a lever, then pry additional investment banks and society on it, this has become a very popular tool. On the premise of GDP growth to ensure that China's economic macro-at least not too much of a problem on, and this year is "35" the first year, we can turn around and look through each of the five-year plan is what the first one or two years, are a large number of additional infrastructure investment period. What year is this next year? Just heard a friend say "General" general meaning what? Means that stability overrides everything, this is the historical and political practices.
So, we do investment and any industry are to listen to party words, with party go, we to know national is what idea, Government is what attitude, he has what orientation, he hope economic on real estate, on livelihood problem strictly control, on other economic index relative loose, stability mainly, in such of market Shang, relative you of securities investment on has may became mainstream of varieties, specific discussion is behind of problem. What to do after? To give you a simple example, all about investments said Buffett, Buffett what is the one-year yields, 21%, previously fully from the secondary market, 7%, comes from the now non-secondary market, only one and a half levels or level market. Real return on this investment is Buffett at what time? Is now the United States do? Was about 30, 40 years ago of the United States, when the United States and China now have comparability, the comparability is very simple, is the rapid development of GDP, fast-growing economy. So I tell you for sure, you see every possible tell me so, other fund managers here, if we can adhere to the ten or 20 years in the industry, does not give up, do not enjoy life, not retire we will become Buffett. In this market, 20% per cent of benefits in each year is more normal to a professional investment institutions, is relatively safe and stable. For each individual investors, may not necessarily, but in the professional body to be in this industrySurvival must reach the Foundation.
In this premise might hexun.com and exhibition with the help of constant, we all do an assessment and then doing a higher level of control, and scattered, I believe this becomes you finally see results, golden decade of the new year, new you have me on your way. Thank you!
