Reporter Huang Shu-Shanghai reported a number of brokerages monitoring data show that Fund positions since the beginning is "rising high" trend, the current average position well above the historical average level of around 80%, and even rival "88% spell" threshold. That allowing the market to rebound can also continue to promote more of a concern for equity funds higher positions several times in recent years become vane indicates the market peaked. In 2009, "88% spell" track two, namely "7·29" and "11·24" two crash last November that crash is still fresh. China Securities journal first proposed "88% spell", and two reports in a timely manner. Recommended reading · fengji instant investment value ranking
· users real disk PK star Fund first Fund annual report debut new fund number increased twice times scale drop 14% ETF Fund unified release double meeting purchase provisions is not field research Wang yawei still into Shandong sea of private among 132 home company "Qian ten" perspective annual report social security fund configuration explicit new trends [hexun know] will cast 1000 Yuan suitable did Fund positions gradually higher despite the home brokerages of calculation model and method has differences, but conclusions basic consistent: Fund overall positions in 80% above, keep higher level.
Some of these according to the report, open equity funds are positions have been approaching or even exceeding the 88% again. Haitong securities report, for example, from February 25 to March 3, estimates of stock and mixed-type Fund stock positions, comparative calculation of positions on the February 18, rose from 79.25% in the previous period to the period of 85.73%, an increase of 6.48%, up to historical high levels.
Specifically, stock-open-end Fund positions upgrade from 84.24% per cent on average, average increase bin 5.76%; hybrid open-end Fund positions by 72.53% per cent on average, the average increase warehouse 7.12%.
According to the monitoring of the number of brokerages, this year, in the position of the Fund as a whole is on the rise, although positions due to the adjustment bin during a small fall, but on the whole operation of the Fund has maintained high positions. It makes market heart alert again in some quarters, because from the perspective of history, of average size of the award-winning guides "reverse indicator", especially when you fund positions close to or reach 88%, means that the Fund subsequent ammunition does not, the market may face the risk of decreased peak.
A recent example in November last year, when several brokerages was released on November 8 to "position and then up to new highs" Fund positions for keywords research report the next day, on November 9, a-shares began to turn down, in just a few trading days within the depth adjustment. the vane will be fulfilled again now Fund position is high again, history will repeat itself again? Has issued a reminder sound of many institutions.
Guosen securities research report published on March 7, open to 90.39% the equity fund positions, based on historical data after positions in more than 90% the market tends to drop or shock, and more difficult before positions reduces to 80% a bull appear, in the context of inflationary pressures, recommends that the current lower positions and selected units and plate, prevent market turbulence fall.
Gold report also warned that funds position levels are still high, "stress may be stock funds at the moment we can see from the funds of a larger risk". Of course there are different views. A fund researcher at the China Securities News reporter said that since the end of last year, and overall position of the Fund have been relatively high, only slight adjustments for the period of the action, there is no substantial increase, jiancang. This means that, in this round of rally, the Fund's contribution is not high, so it cannot be through insufficient funds bullet inferring market rising fixed.
As for the kinetic energy of the future Fund is there a jiancang, present circumstances, attitudes and early on the afternoon of the Fund and there is not much different, basic still maintain market shocks up to judge.
In fact, size of the Fund management assets accounted for only about 15% of the a-share market, much reduced proportion compared to previous years, funds capacity around the market was weaker. In addition to concerns over Fund jiancang, on the funds remain relatively optimistic about the market today. Gold report said March macro under the policy will remain tight liquidity situation, but in January of this year remains relatively relaxed state, with February liquidity basically the same, coupled with some investment in real estate capital may flow into the stock market, so from the perspective of macro-mobility, support March liquidity on the stock market better than the previous two months. At the same time, two weeks in a row, executives to reduce slowdown, pressure reducing industrial capital is weak.
